Survey of Professional Forecasters

Quarterly survey of U.S. macroeconomic forecasts contributed by economists from academia, government, banking, and the private sector

Survey of Professional Forecasters: U.S. Macroeconomic Forecast Data

The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a quarterly survey of U.S. macroeconomic forecasts contributed by economists from academia, government, banking, and the private sector.

Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Detailed Description

First launched in 1968, the SPF is the oldest continuous quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. It provides projections on key indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price inflation (CPI), unemployment rates, interest rates, and other economic variables. The survey results include mean, median, and anonymized individual forecasts and are published on a quarterly basis. Historical data is available through the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s public website. The SPF is used to support economic research, valuation modeling, financial analysis, and policy studies.

Key Features

Quarterly forecasts from professional economists across sectors
Covers GDP growth, inflation (CPI), unemployment, interest rates, and additional macroeconomic indicators
Historical data available from 1968 onward
Mean, median, and anonymized individual forecasts provided
Publicly accessible data and supporting documentation via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Applicable for economic research, valuation modeling, and policy analysis

Data Source

Source

The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It gathers macroeconomic forecasts from a diverse panel of economists, including those from academia, industry, banking, and consulting. The survey provides projections on various U.S. economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. These forecasts are based on the professional judgment and analytical models of the participating economists, reflecting their expectations of future economic conditions.

1. Key Forecasted Variables

The SPF collects forecasts on a range of economic indicators, including:

Real and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Components of GDP: such as personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential and residential fixed investment, government spending, and net exports
Inflation Measures: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Core PCE
Labor Market Indicators: unemployment rate, nonfarm payroll employment
Interest Rates: 3-month Treasury bill rate, 10-year Treasury bond rate
Corporate Profits After Tax
Industrial Production Index
Housing Starts

These forecasts are typically provided for multiple horizons, including quarterly and annual projections.

2. Methodology and Data Collection

The SPF operates by soliciting forecasts from its panelists on a regular quarterly schedule. Each participant submits their projections based on their own analytical methods, which may include econometric models, statistical analyses, and expert judgment. The survey compiles these individual forecasts to produce aggregate measures such as mean and median forecasts, as well as measures of forecast dispersion.

Additionally, the SPF includes probabilistic forecasts, where panelists assign probabilities to various ranges of outcomes for certain variables, providing insight into the uncertainty and risk assessments of the forecasters.

3. Accessing the Data

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia makes the SPF data publicly available through its website. Users can access:

Historical Forecast Data: including individual and aggregate forecasts
Probability Distributions: for variables like GDP growth and inflation
Documentation: detailing the survey’s methodology and variable definitions
Special Studies and Analyses: conducted using SPF data

These resources are valuable for researchers, policymakers, and analysts interested in understanding professional expectations of U.S. economic performance.

Available from: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia