Consensus Forecasts™ – USA

Monthly economic forecasting resource that compiles projections from a global network of economists

Consensus Forecasts™ – USA: Macroeconomic Forecast Data

Consensus Forecasts™ – USA is a monthly economic forecasting resource that compiles projections from a global network of economists. The service provides comparative forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators to support economic analysis, valuation, and decision-making.

Publisher: Consensus Economics

Detailed Description

Published by Consensus Economics since 1989, Consensus Forecasts™ – USA aggregates forecasts from over 1,000 economists covering more than 100 countries. The survey provides projections for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices (including energy, metals, and agriculture). Each monthly release includes consensus forecasts (mean, high, and low estimates), individual contributor forecasts, and supporting analysis. The historical database contains more than 21 million data points. The service also offers special surveys on long-term outlooks, forecast probabilities, and quarterly breakdowns. The dataset is used by economic analysts, valuation professionals, and investors for time series modeling, scenario analysis, and comparative forecasting.

Key Features

Forecasts from over 1,000 economists on key macroeconomic indicators
Coverage of more than 100 countries and over 50 commodity prices
Monthly inflation forecasts with horizons up to 15 months
Mean, high, and low scenario estimates for comparative analysis
Historical forecast database with more than 21 million data points
Futures vs. consensus price forecast comparisons for commodities
Special surveys on long-term outlooks, quarterly forecasts, and forecast probabilities
Structured data suitable for time series modeling and economic analysis

Publisher: Consensus Economics

Data Source

Source

The Consensus Forecasts™ – USA publication by Consensus Economics compiles macroeconomic forecasts by surveying a panel of over 700 to 1,000 economists each month. These experts hail from diverse institutions, including banks, investment firms, consultancies, and universities. Each economist provides projections for key U.S. economic indicators, and the publication presents both individual forecasts and the consensus (mean) forecast for each variable.

Key Features of the Data

Forecasted Variables: The publication covers approximately 20 macroeconomic indicators, such as:

Real and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Personal Consumption and Disposable Income
Business Investment and Pre-Tax Profits
Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices
Producer Prices and Employment Costs
Unemployment Rate and Housing Starts
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Federal Budget Balance and Current Account
Auto and Light Truck Sales
Industrial Production
Monetary Policy Evaluations

Forecast Horizon: Each monthly issue provides forecasts extending up to two years ahead, along with four years of historical data for context.

Currency and Interest Rate Projections: The publication includes forecasts for major currencies against the U.S. dollar over 3, 12, and 24-month periods, as well as projections for 3-month and 10-year interest rates.

Methodology

Consensus Economics employs a structured survey approach:

Data Collection: Each month, a standardized questionnaire is distributed to a broad panel of economists, requesting their forecasts for specified economic variables.
Data Aggregation: Individual forecasts are collected and the mean (consensus) forecast is calculated for each variable.
Analysis and Presentation: The publication presents both individual forecasts and the consensus figures, accompanied by written analysis and charts to contextualize the data.

This methodology ensures a comprehensive and balanced view of expected economic trends, reflecting a wide range of expert opinions.

Accessing the Data

The Consensus Forecasts™ – USA is available through subscription, offering 12 monthly issues per year. Subscribers receive the publication in structured formats, including Excel files with time series data and TrendCharts, facilitating integration into various analytical tools.

Available from: Consensus Economics