Livingston Survey

Provides projections on key economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates

Livingston Survey: U.S. Economic Forecasts

The Livingston Survey, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is a semiannual survey of U.S. economic forecasts compiled from economists in academia, government, banking, and industry.

Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Detailed Description

The Livingston Survey was established in 1946 by journalist Joseph Livingston and is the longest-running continuous survey of U.S. economic forecasts. It provides projections on key economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. The survey is published twice a year and offers access to historical data, mean and median forecasts, and anonymized individual responses. Data from the survey is available through the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s public web portal and is used in macroeconomic research, forecasting models, valuation analysis, and market studies.

Key Features

Forecasts compiled from economists in government, academia, finance, and industry
Covers inflation, GDP growth, interest rates, unemployment, and other key indicators
Data series available since 1946; published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia since 1990
Provides mean, median, and anonymized individual forecasts
Accessible historical datasets and supporting documentation
Applicable to economic forecasting, valuation analysis, and scenario modeling

Data Source

The Livingston Survey is a long-standing semiannual survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, gathering forecasts from economists across various sectors, including industry, government, banking, and academia. Initiated in 1946 by journalist Joseph Livingston, it stands as the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations in the United States.

Forecasted Variables and Data Sources

The survey encompasses forecasts for 18 key U.S. economic indicators, with actual data sourced from authoritative government agencies:

Real and Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Data obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), specifically the Survey of Current Business, Tables 1.1.6 and 1.1.5.
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Sourced from the BEA’s Survey of Current Business, Table 5.3.6.
Corporate Profits After Tax: Also from the BEA’s Survey of Current Business, Table 1.12.
Industrial Production: Data provided by the Federal Reserve Board’s Statistical Release G.17.
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Total Private Housing Starts: Information from the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction report.
Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI): Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rate, Average Weekly Earnings, and Retail Sales: Data sourced from the BLS and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Automobile Sales: Figures obtained from Ward’s Automotive Reports.
Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Information on the prime rate, 10-year Treasury bond rate, 90-day Treasury bill rate, and the S&P 500 index are collected from the Federal Reserve Board and financial market data providers.

These sources ensure that the survey’s forecasts are grounded in reliable and up-to-date economic data.

Survey Methodology

Conducted twice a year, in June and December, the Livingston Survey collects forecasts for various time horizons:

Quarterly Variables: Forecasts for the current quarter, two quarters ahead, and four quarters ahead.
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Monthly Variables: Projections for the current month, six months ahead, and twelve months ahead.
Annual Averages: In June, forecasts for the current and following year; in December, forecasts for the current and next two years.
Long-Term Projections: Since June 1990, the survey includes 10-year annual-average forecasts for CPI inflation and real GDP growth.

The survey results are presented as mean and median forecasts, along with individual responses (anonymized for confidentiality). This structure allows for analysis of consensus expectations and the range of opinions among forecasters.

Available from: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia