Country Forecasts | U.S. Précis Macro, State, and Metro

Series of economic forecast reports covering global countries, U.S. states, and metropolitan areas

Country Forecasts | U.S. Précis Macro, State, and Metro: Regional and National Economic Forecasts

Moody’s Analytics produces a series of economic forecast reports covering global countries, U.S. states, and metropolitan areas. These reports provide data and analysis to support economic research, risk assessment, and policy planning.

Publisher: Moody’s Analytics

Detailed Description

The U.S. Précis Metro, State, and Macro reports offer concise summaries of current and projected economic conditions. Each metropolitan area report includes a three-page summary with a five-year forecast derived from Moody’s Analytics’ proprietary econometric model. Metro forecasts are updated monthly, with reports issued three times per year. The reports provide analysis of key economic drivers such as housing, employment, consumer credit, and regional growth. The underlying model assumptions and forecast rankings are reviewed regularly. The reports are used by economists, financial analysts, planners, and policy professionals to monitor regional performance, evaluate risks, and support decision-making.

Key Features

Coverage of all U.S. states and metropolitan areas
Three-page metropolitan area reports with five-year forecasts, updated monthly
Forecasts based on Moody’s Analytics’ simultaneous econometric model
Forecast rankings and model assumptions updated monthly; reports published three times per year
Analysis of key economic drivers, regional trends, and risk factors
Topical coverage includes housing markets, labor market trends, and consumer credit

Data Source

Source

The Country Forecasts | U.S. Précis Macro, State, and Metro reports are produced by Moody’s Analytics. These reports provide detailed economic forecasts and analyses at national, state, and metropolitan levels across the United States. The data underpinning these forecasts are sourced from a combination of official government statistics, proprietary models, and Moody’s own research.

Primary Data Sources

Moody’s Analytics leverages a variety of reputable sources to compile its forecasts:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Provides data on gross domestic product (GDP), personal income, and other national economic indicators.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Offers information on employment, unemployment, wages, and inflation.
U.S. Census Bureau: Supplies demographic data, housing statistics, and business activity metrics.
Federal Reserve: Contributes data on monetary policy, interest rates, and financial markets.

These sources ensure that the forecasts are grounded in accurate and up-to-date economic information.

Proprietary Models and Methodologies

Beyond public data, Moody’s Analytics employs its own proprietary models to enhance the accuracy and relevance of its forecasts:

Business Cycle Indicators: Assess the current phase of the economic cycle for different regions.
Probability of Recession Metrics: Estimate the likelihood of economic downturns.
Fiscal Space and Currency Risk Indices: Evaluate the financial health and risk exposure of various jurisdictions.

These models integrate both quantitative data and qualitative assessments to provide a comprehensive economic outlook.

Report Features

Each Précis report typically includes:

Current Economic Conditions: Analysis of recent economic performance.
economy.com
Five-Year Forecasts: Projections for key indicators such as employment, income, housing activity, and industrial output.
Risk Assessments: Identification of potential economic vulnerabilities and strengths.
Comparative Analyses: Benchmarking against national averages and other regions.

These features are designed to assist policymakers, investors, and business leaders in making informed decisions based on regional economic trends.

Available from: Moody’s Analytics